The Cincinnati Reds rolled past the Chicago Cubs 17-9 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 2, 2026, a result that was never seriously in doubt after the early innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Cincinnati holding a 54 percent home win probability, and by the time the dust settled the model's estimate had moved to 100 percent, a reflection of how thoroughly the Reds dismantled their opponent through the first three frames.
The game turned decisively in the bottom of the second and third innings, driven almost entirely by Matt McLain. His home run off Jameson Taillon in the second represented the single biggest swing of the contest, adding 19.2 percent in win probability. He followed that with another home run in the third, this one off Ryan Rolison, for an additional 12.8 percent swing. Sandwiched between those two McLain blasts, Ke'Bryan Hayes doubled off Rolison to push Cincinnati's advantage even further, a play worth 16.6 percent in win probability. The Cubs mounted brief resistance in the top of the third, with Pedro Ramírez singling and Jefferson Rojas doubling off Nick Sando to account for a combined 17.6 percent in WPA for Chicago, but those contributions were not enough to slow Cincinnati's momentum through that stretch.
McLain finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a significant margin, posting a WPA of plus-32.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-6.0. Ke'Bryan Hayes was the second most influential bat at plus-18.8 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Noelvi Marte added plus-8.9 percent WPA and plus-1.0 RE24. On the mound, Brandon Williamson led Cincinnati's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-3.0 percent. The Cubs scored three runs in the eighth to close the final margin slightly, but the outcome had long been settled, with Cincinnati winning comfortably by eight runs.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.