The Cleveland Guardians handled the visiting Colorado Rockies 8-3 at Goodyear Ballpark on March 1, 2026, turning what opened as a relatively even contest into a decisive home win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Cleveland as a modest favorite at 54% home win probability, and by the final out that figure had climbed to 100%, reflecting how thoroughly the Guardians controlled the game's key moments.
The two plays that did the most damage to Colorado's chances came off the bats of Chase DeLauter and Milan Tolentino. DeLauter's home run off Jaden Hill in the bottom of the third inning shifted win probability by plus 18.1 points, the single largest swing of the game, and he finished as the top batter by both WPA at plus 20.6% and RE24 at plus 2.8. Tolentino added a plus 15.7% swing with his home run off RJ Petit in the bottom of the sixth, finishing with plus 15.5% WPA and plus 2.3 RE24. The Rockies briefly threatened in the top of the sixth, with TJ Rumfield reaching on a hit by pitch for a plus 14.3% swing and Troy Johnston following with a single worth plus 11.5%, but Adael Amador's groundout into a double play off Matt Festa erased the rally and cost Colorado 9.7 points of win probability in a single at-bat, effectively ending the competitive portion of the game.
On the pitching side, Gavin Williams led Cleveland's staff contributions with plus 5.8% WPA, followed by Erik Sabrowski at plus 5.4% and Tim Herrin at plus 4.8%. Colorado finished with five hits and an error against ten hits and an error for Cleveland, and the Rockies never managed to string together enough offense to overcome the early deficit the Guardians built and steadily extended.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.