Toronto rallied past Philadelphia 7-5 at TD Ballpark on February 28, 2026, completing a swing that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Blue Jays win at 100% by the final out. The Phillies had seized the momentum in the top of the fifth, when Garrett Stubbs ripped a triple off Connor Seabold that shifted win probability 15.7 points in Philadelphia's favor, followed almost immediately by a Bryce Harper home run off the same pitcher that added another 12.7 points. Those two blows gave the Phillies a 5-2 lead heading into the bottom of the sixth, but Toronto answered with the most consequential half-inning of the game.
The Blue Jays' sixth-inning eruption erased the deficit entirely and then some. Josh Rivera delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Tim Mayza that swung win probability 19.8 points toward Toronto, the single largest play of the afternoon. Rafael Lantigua then extended the damage with a single off Jose Pena Jr. worth 16.1 points of win probability, and the Blue Jays pushed across four runs in the frame to take a lead they never relinquished. Andrés Giménez had set an earlier tone in the third with a double off Brad Keller that added 13.0 points to Toronto's chances.
Rivera finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, posting a WPA of plus-24.2 and an RE24 of plus-2.2, while Lantigua was close behind at plus-18.9 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24. Riley Tirotta also contributed meaningfully at plus-17.5 WPA. On the pitching side, Cristopher Sánchez led Toronto's staff with plus-9.5 WPA, supported by Angel Bastardo at plus-8.5 and Tanner Andrews at plus-8.1. Philadelphia committed three errors against a Toronto team that played a clean defensive game, and the Blue Jays' 12-hit output proved more than enough to overcome a Phillies lineup that managed nine hits of its own.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.