San Diego routed Seattle 7-1 at Peoria Stadium on February 28, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win shifting from 54 percent before first pitch to a virtual certainty of 100 percent by game's end. The Padres did their damage in a decisive second inning, posting five runs to effectively settle the outcome before the game had barely begun. Seattle managed its lone run but could never threaten in any meaningful way, finishing with four hits against a San Diego pitching staff that held firm through nine innings.
The second inning was where the contest was decided, and the win-probability swings reflect just how quickly it unraveled for Seattle. Xander Bogaerts delivered the biggest single blow of the game, a double off Houston Roth that added 14.7 percent to San Diego's win probability. Jackson Merrill followed with a home run, also off Roth, pushing the needle another 10.8 percent in the Padres' favor. Jake Cronenworth then doubled off Kade Anderson for a further 7.9 percent swing, and a Freddy Fermin forceout off Peyton Alford contributed an additional 6.7 percent. The Mariners' best chance to respond came in the top of the third, but Colt Emerson grounded into a double play off JP Sears, a swing of negative 6.0 percent that extinguished any flickering hope of a rally.
Bogaerts led all position players with a WPA of plus 13.5 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.5, while Merrill posted the top RE24 among batters at plus 2.3 alongside an 11.4 percent WPA contribution. Fermin added a plus 9.3 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24. On the mound, Emerson Hancock led San Diego's pitchers with a plus 4.0 percent WPA, followed by Jeremiah Estrada and Mason Miller, each at plus 3.5 percent, as the Padres' staff combined to keep Seattle quiet and protect a comfortable lead throughout the final seven innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.