The St. Louis Cardinals routed the Miami Marlins 10-2 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 28, 2026, collecting 18 hits while committing no errors against Miami's six hits and one error. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Miami entering with a 54% win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, a swing driven almost entirely by a chaotic second inning that effectively decided the contest.
The second inning was where the game was won and lost. Jimmy Crooks delivered the single most impactful offensive play of the afternoon, a single off Jake Smith that shifted win probability by plus 13.2%, the largest swing of the game. JJ Wetherholt added a single of his own against Smith worth plus 6.4%, and César Prieto capped the inning with a home run off Eury Pérez that moved the needle another plus 7.7%, giving St. Louis a commanding 6-0 advantage after just two frames. Miami's best chance to claw back came in the bottom of the second, but Otto Lopez grounded out against Darlin Saladin in a spot that carried a minus 12.8% swing, preserving the Cardinals' cushion and functionally ending Miami's realistic path to a comeback. Andrew Pintar provided the Marlins' lone highlight, a home run off Matt Svanson in the fifth worth plus 3.4%, though it did little to alter the outcome.
Among individual performers, Crooks finished as the top offensive contributor with a plus 14.3% WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.6, while Wetherholt posted plus 9.6% WPA and the game's best RE24 mark at plus 3.4, reflecting his consistent run-environment contribution throughout the lineup. Prieto added plus 7.1% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.4. On the mound, Darlin Saladin was the standout arm, earning plus 12.8% WPA by suppressing Miami's second-inning threat, with Gordon Graceffo and Ryne Stanek each contributing positive outings to close out the lopsided Cardinals victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.