The New York Yankees defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-1 at George M. Steinbrenner Field on February 28, 2026, holding Toronto scoreless through eight innings before the Blue Jays pushed across a run in the ninth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how thoroughly New York controlled the contest. The Yankees produced all five of their runs in a three-inning stretch from the fifth through the seventh, while Toronto managed just five hits and committed an error in a largely one-sided afternoon.
The pivotal sequence came in the fifth and sixth innings. José Caballero delivered the game's single biggest positive swing for New York in the bottom of the fifth, his double off Ryan Jennings adding 14.2 percentage points of win probability. The sixth inning then became the afternoon's fulcrum. Toronto briefly generated some threat, with Charles McAdoo's double off Fernando Cruz adding 7.8 points and Davis Schneider's walk adding another 8.2, but Eloy Jiménez erased the rally by grounding into a double play, a swing of negative 20.6 percentage points that effectively ended any realistic path back for the Blue Jays. Austin Wells then extended the Yankees' advantage in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Nate Garkow, a blow worth 12.6 points of win probability.
Austin Wells led all position players with a WPA of plus 14.5 and a RE24 of plus 1.8, while José Caballero contributed plus 11.8 WPA and Charles McAdoo added plus 9.2. On the pitching side, José Berríos was the most impactful arm of the day at plus 17.7 WPA, followed by Paul Blackburn at plus 13.9, and Fernando Cruz at plus 6.4 despite pitching through Toronto's sixth-inning threat. The DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward crediting the Yankees' pitching depth and Wells's timely production as the defining factors in a methodical New York victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.