The New York Mets routed the St. Louis Cardinals 14-3 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 27, 2026, turning what opened as a near-even contest into a thorough dismantling. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Cardinals entering with a 54 percent home win probability, but by game's end that figure had fallen to zero percent, reflecting just how completely New York seized control over the course of nine innings. The Mets finished with 14 hits and committed no errors, while St. Louis managed eight hits and was hurt by two errors of their own.
The decisive stretch came in the fourth and fifth innings, where New York's offense broke the game open through a series of high-leverage blows. MJ Melendez was the central figure, connecting for a home run off Matt Pushard in the top of the fourth that swung win probability 10.9 percent in the Mets' favor, then following with another home run off José Davila in the fifth for an additional 14.9 percent swing — the single largest play of the game. Hayden Senger added a single off Davila in that same fifth-inning burst worth 10.8 percent, and Carson Benge contributed a single off Justin Bruihl for another 8.8 percent swing. St. Louis briefly responded when JJ Wetherholt hit a home run off Devin Williams in the bottom of the fourth, a swing worth 11.4 percent, but the Cardinals could not sustain any threat as New York continued to pile on in the seventh, eighth, and ninth.
Individually, Melendez was the game's dominant offensive performer with a combined WPA of plus-26.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-3.1, numbers that reflect his outsized role in defining the outcome. Wetherholt posted a WPA of plus-9.5 for St. Louis, and Senger added plus-8.4 for New York. On the mound, Freddy Peralta led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-17.6 percent, with Quinn Mathews and Justin Hagenman each contributing positive outings in support. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting the Mets' fifth-inning explosion as the true point of no return in what became a one-sided result.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.