The Philadelphia Phillies routed the Miami Marlins 10-2 at BayCare Ballpark on February 27, 2026, turning what began as a close contest into a comfortable victory. The DiamondIQ model opened with Philadelphia holding a 54% home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily and ultimately settled at 100% by the final out. The Phillies struck early with a four-run first inning, then added three more in the sixth and two in the eighth to pull away decisively, finishing with 14 hits and no errors against Miami's seven hits and one miscue.
The game's decisive moments were concentrated in the first and sixth innings. The biggest single play by win-probability impact came in the bottom of the sixth, when Robert Moore ripped a double off Josh Ekness that swung the win probability 9.0 percentage points in Philadelphia's favor, helping fuel the three-run frame. Earlier, in the bottom of the first, Otto Kemp struck out against Colby Martin in a sequence that added 7.1 percentage points to the Phillies' win probability, reflecting how quickly Miami's pitching was under pressure. On the Marlins' side, Javier Sanoja's lineout in the top of the second off Aaron Nola cost Miami 7.3 percentage points, and his pop out in the sixth surrendered another 5.6 points, making him the most consequential negative contributor in the game's probability swings.
Individually, Heriberto Hernández led all batters with a 10.0% WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.5, while Moore contributed 9.0% WPA alongside the game's best RE24 figure of plus-3.5. Trea Turner added 7.5% WPA and a plus-2.0 RE24. On the mound, Bryse Wilson was the most impactful arm of the afternoon at plus-9.4% WPA, with Aaron Nola contributing plus-5.8% and Max Lazar adding plus-5.0% as the Phillies' pitching staff collectively limited Miami throughout.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.