Arizona held Seattle to a single run on six hits, completing a 3-1 victory at Peoria Stadium on February 27, 2026. The DiamondIQ model opened the day giving Seattle a 54% win probability as the home side, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out, a reflection of how decisively the Diamondbacks seized control in the early innings and never surrendered it.
The game turned in the top of the second, when A.J. Vukovich connected for a home run off Luis Castillo, a swing that shifted win probability 12.0 points in Arizona's favor and supplied the offensive foundation the D-backs would protect the rest of the afternoon. Jordan Lawlar added to the inning's damage by drawing a caught stealing call at second base that contributed a further 6.3 points of win probability. Seattle managed only scattered resistance, with its most damaging sequence coming in the bottom of the second when Cole Young struck out against Ryne Nelson in a spot that cost the Mariners 8.8 points of win probability, and in the fifth when Jhonny Pereda grounded into a double play off Juan Morillo, erasing 10.9 points from Seattle's ledger. The Mariners' lone run came in the seventh but arrived far too late to threaten the outcome.
On the mound, Ryne Nelson was the standout performer with a game-leading plus-13.7% WPA contribution, and Daniel Eagen secured the final frame with a plus-6.0% mark, aided by Brock Rodden's groundout in the bottom of the ninth that registered plus-11.6 points of win probability for Arizona. Vukovich finished as the top offensive contributor at plus-9.8% WPA with a RE24 of plus-2.2, while Will Wilson added plus-7.2% WPA and plus-0.7 RE24 to round out Arizona's most impactful performers.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.