The Los Angeles Angels defeated the Cincinnati Reds 4-3 at Goodyear Ballpark on February 27, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of a 54 percent home win probability to hand Cincinnati a loss that ended with the Reds holding a zero percent chance of winning. The game's decisive sequence came in the top of the fourth inning, when Logan O'Hoppe delivered a home run off Julian Aguiar that shifted win probability 15.0 points in Los Angeles's favor, and Oswald Peraza followed with a double off the same pitcher for an additional 9.9-point swing, with Cincinnati's error on the afternoon contributing to the Angels building a 3-0 cushion through four innings. Los Angeles added an insurance run in the seventh when Denzer Guzman laced a double off Yunior Marte, a hit that moved the needle 13.6 points toward the Angels and proved critical as the Reds began to claw back.
Cincinnati mounted a genuine threat, scoring in the fifth on a Rece Hinds triple off Ryan Zeferjahn that represented a 10.8-point swing toward the Reds, and adding single runs in the fifth and ninth to pull within one. The game's single most consequential moment by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, however, belonged to Los Angeles: Michael Toglia's strikeout to end the bottom of the ninth, recorded against Shaun Anderson, generated a 31.6-point win-probability swing and closed out the Angels' victory. Toglia led all position players with a plus-31.6 percent WPA on the night, while O'Hoppe posted plus-16.8 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 and Hinds contributed plus-13.1 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 in a losing effort. Among pitchers, Huascar Ynoa paced the Angels staff at plus-13.3 percent WPA, with Rhett Lowder and Walbert Ureña each adding meaningful contributions at plus-10.8 and plus-10.5 percent WPA respectively.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.