The Colorado Rockies handed the San Francisco Giants an 11-3 defeat at Scottsdale Stadium on February 26, 2026, turning what the DiamondIQ model estimated as a 54 percent pre-game home win probability for San Francisco into a zero percent closing figure as Colorado pulled away methodically over nine innings. The Rockies produced 16 hits with no errors while the Giants committed one, and Colorado scored in five separate frames to leave little doubt about the outcome.
The decisive moments came in clusters. Kyle Karros got Colorado moving in the second inning with a triple off Blade Tidwell that shifted win probability 7.3 percent in the Rockies' favor. Charlie Condon delivered the single biggest offensive blow from Colorado's side in the fourth, launching a home run off Reiver Sanmartin that added 10.9 percent to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and left Condon as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-12.5 percent with a 1.0 RE24. Chad Stevens extended the damage in the fifth with a home run off Hayden Birdsong worth plus-9.2 percent in win probability, finishing with a 1.2 RE24 and plus-11.2 percent WPA on the day. San Francisco's most meaningful countermovement came in the bottom of the fifth when Harrison Bader doubled off Victor Vodnik for a plus-11.1 percent swing, but the Giants could not build on it. Jordan Beck's grounded into double play in the third, costing Colorado 9.6 percent in win probability, stood as the lone significant momentum check on the Rockies.
On the mound, Valente Bellozo led all pitchers with a plus-10.2 percent WPA contribution, with Jimmy Herget at plus-5.9 percent and Spencer Bivens at plus-4.8 percent adding further support. Cole Carrigg rounded out Colorado's offensive standouts with a plus-9.9 percent WPA and 1.2 RE24, matching Stevens for the best run-context figure among position players. The Rockies closed the game having outscored San Francisco eight to zero in the second, fourth, fifth, sixth, and eighth innings combined, a methodical accumulation that reflected the one-sided nature the DiamondIQ model ultimately captured by game's end.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.