The Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-5 at JetBlue Park on February 26, 2026, in a game that was effectively decided by a historic fourth-inning outburst. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest with Boston holding a 54 percent home win probability, but by the time the fourth inning concluded, that figure had climbed to near certainty, ultimately closing at 100 percent. Tampa Bay managed to chip away with single runs in the fifth, sixth, seventh, and ninth innings, but the damage from the fourth was insurmountable.
The bottom of the fourth inning was the defining sequence of the game. Trevor Story delivered the biggest individual blow, a double off TJ Nichols that swung win probability by 14.1 percent, and he finished the night as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-13.2 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.2. Braiden Ward followed with a single off Nichols worth 8.6 percent in win probability, and Caleb Durbin added a double off Jackson Lancaster that moved the needle another 6.4 percent. Durbin finished with a WPA of plus-9.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.8, making him Boston's second most impactful bat on the evening. The Red Sox pushed all seven of their runs across in that single inning, an avalanche that rewrote the complexion of the contest entirely.
On the Tampa Bay side, Marshall Toole provided the most consequential offensive moment for the Rays, lacing a double off Payton Tolle in the top of the seventh that added 6.8 percent in win probability and contributed to Toole finishing with a WPA of plus-9.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.0. Homer Bush Jr. also did damage earlier, connecting for a double off Aroldis Chapman in the third for a 6.4 percent swing. Boston's pitching staff kept the Rays in check when it mattered most, with Steven Matz leading all pitchers at plus-6.7 percent WPA, followed by Greg Weissert at plus-5.7 percent and Chapman, despite surrendering the Bush double, contributing plus-5.3 percent on the night.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.