The New York Mets blanked the Houston Astros 5-0 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on February 26, 2026, doing the bulk of their damage in the early innings and never allowing Houston a meaningful foothold in the contest. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Houston holding a 54% win probability, but that figure eroded steadily and finished at 0% as the Mets strung together a dominant offensive and pitching performance across nine innings.
The decisive sequence came in the second inning, when Tyrone Taylor connected on a home run off Steven Okert that shifted win probability by 12.7 percentage points in the Mets' favor, the single largest swing of the game. Houston's best opportunity to respond came in the bottom half of that frame, when Nick Allen grounded out against Nolan McLean, a play that cost the Astros 8.8 percentage points of win probability and effectively sealed the tone of the afternoon. Marcus Semien extended the Mets' lead in the third inning with a home run off Bryan King worth 6.9 points of win probability, and Luis Torrens added a run-producing single off AJ Blubaugh in the fourth to push the margin to five. The Astros managed only two hits across the entire game.
Taylor led all batters with a WPA of plus 11.7% and a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Semien contributed plus 5.7% WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.0. On the mound, Nolan McLean was the standout performer, posting a WPA of plus 20.7% as he kept Houston's lineup quiet through his portion of the game. Robert Stock added plus 6.9% WPA in relief. The DiamondIQ model favors the Mets' performance across every phase of this one, and the final line of five runs, ten hits, and zero errors reflected a clean and controlled effort from New York.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.