The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Detroit Tigers 5-3 at BayCare Ballpark on February 25, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Philadelphia built its advantage gradually, scoring two in the third, one in the fourth, and two more in the fifth to construct a lead Detroit could never fully erase. The Tigers managed single runs in the fourth, fifth, and ninth innings, finishing with eight hits against no errors, but they were unable to string together the kind of sustained pressure needed to overcome a Phillies club that controlled the game's critical moments.
The most consequential sequence came in the bottom half of the game's middle innings. Pedro León's single off Scott Effross in the third added 8.8 percentage points to Philadelphia's win probability and started the scoring, while Detroit's Tomás Nido grounded into a double play in the top of that same inning off Kyle Backhus, costing the Tigers 8.0 points of win probability and erasing a potential opportunity. In the fourth, Otto Kemp's home run off Konnor Pilkington swung the model 10.5 points in Philadelphia's favor, and Javier Báez countered for Detroit with a single off Zach McCambley worth 10.6 points in the top half of that frame. The game's single largest swing came in the bottom fifth, when Bryce Harper doubled off Jack Little to add 11.9 percentage points to the Phillies' probability.
Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper each finished as the top performers by WPA, both posting identical marks of plus-12.6 percent with RE24 figures of plus-1.4 and plus-1.3 respectively, reflecting their sustained contributions to Philadelphia's run-scoring efforts. Báez led Detroit's offensive contributors with a WPA of plus-11.1 percent. On the pitching side, Ty Madden paced the Phillies staff with a WPA of plus-6.7 percent, supported by Kyle Backhus at plus-5.3 and Génesis Cabrera at plus-5.0, a trio that collectively kept Detroit's lineup from generating the consistent damage necessary to shift the model back in the Tigers' direction.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.