Baltimore held off Tampa Bay 4-3 at Ed Smith Stadium on February 25, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at 54 percent in favor of the Orioles and closing at 100 percent by the final out. The game turned decisively in the fourth inning when Jonny DeLuca connected for a home run off Andrew Kittredge, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-29.1 percent and gave Tampa Bay a 3-1 lead at that point. Baltimore answered with a two-run fifth to retake the lead, and Vance Honeycutt's solo home run off Derrick Edington in the bottom of the seventh added another 18.0 percentage points to Baltimore's win probability, proving to be the cushion the Orioles ultimately needed.
Tampa Bay mounted late pressure but could not convert. In the eighth, Kenny Piper's double off Nestor German briefly added 11.8 percent to the Rays' win probability, but Connor Hujsak's strikeout against German in the same inning gave back 11.4 percent and stalled the threat. Jeisson Cabrera then closed the door in the ninth, striking out Narciso Polanco in a moment that swung win probability 13.5 percent in Baltimore's favor and effectively ended Tampa Bay's chances.
Among individual performers, DeLuca led all batters with a plus-26.4 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Honeycutt and Tyler O'Neill contributed plus-18.0 and plus-17.4 percent WPA respectively for Baltimore's offense. On the pitching side, Nestor German was the model's top-ranked arm with a plus-26.2 percent WPA, navigating late Tampa Bay pressure to protect the one-run lead. Trevor Rogers and Jeisson Cabrera added plus-8.2 and plus-8.0 percent WPA respectively to secure the Baltimore victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.