The Atlanta Braves defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 3-1 on February 25, 2026, at CoolToday Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Atlanta's win probability climbing from 54% before first pitch to 100% by the final out. Pittsburgh struck first with a run in the top of the first inning, but the Braves answered decisively in the bottom of the third, scoring all three of their runs in a frame that effectively decided the outcome.
The third inning was the pivot point of the contest. Drake Baldwin's triple off Paul Skenes shifted Atlanta's win probability by plus 9.5 points, and Jurickson Profar followed with a double off Jarod Bayless that added another 7.7 points. Austin Riley then delivered the decisive blow, a home run off Bayless that swung win probability by plus 16.4 points and stood as the single most consequential play of the game. Riley finished as the top offensive performer by WPA at plus 11.9, supported by an RE24 of plus 1.2, with Profar close behind at plus 8.3 WPA and plus 0.9 RE24, and Baldwin contributing plus 6.0 WPA.
On the pitching side, Dylan Dodd led all pitchers with plus 11.0 WPA, with James Karinchak adding plus 8.1 and Hayden Harris contributing plus 7.2 as the Braves bullpen held Pittsburgh scoreless after the first inning. A Ryan O'Hearn groundout in the top of the fifth, which cost Pittsburgh minus 9.6 win-probability points with runners on base against Dodd, illustrated how thoroughly the Pirates were stifled after their early score. Pittsburgh finished with six hits but could not convert against Atlanta's pitching staff across the final eight innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.