The St. Louis Cardinals blanked the New York Mets 6-0 at Clover Park on February 25, 2026, holding New York scoreless across all nine innings despite the Mets collecting eight hits. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with the Mets holding a 54% win probability as the home side, but that figure fell steadily and closed at 0% by the final out, reflecting a Cardinals performance that was thoroughly dominant in both the pitching and run-scoring columns.
The decisive moment came in the top of the third inning, when Nolan Gorman launched a home run off Jonah Tong that shifted win probability by 23.1 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. A JJ Wetherholt walk later in that same frame added another 5.5 percentage points, compounding the damage Tong absorbed in the inning. St. Louis extended its advantage in the sixth when Chase Davis singled off Nick Burdi for a 9.9-point probability swing, and added a run in the seventh to reach the final margin of six. New York's most damaging moments came on the other side of the ledger, with a Grae Kessinger pop out in the fourth costing the Mets 6.5 percentage points and a Jared Young ground into a double play in the fifth erasing another 6.1 points off their win chances.
Gorman finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus 21.5% and an RE24 of plus 2.0, while Chase Davis followed at plus 12.5% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, and Carson Benge added plus 8.4% WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the mound, the Cardinals used multiple arms effectively, with Richard Fitts leading the pitching staff at plus 6.7% WPA, followed by Chris Roycroft at plus 5.6% and Gordon Graceffo at plus 5.2%, the latter two each benefiting from the Mets grounding into productive outs against them.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.