The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers played to a 4-4 tie on February 25, 2026, at Publix Field at Joker Marchant Stadium, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate at exactly 0% for either side by the final out. The game was scoreless through three innings before Toronto broke through in the fourth, with Ernie Clement's single off Dylan Smith serving as the decisive blow in a three-run frame, a hit that added 16.9% in win probability and ultimately contributed to Clement finishing the day as one of Toronto's most impactful bats at +24.4% WPA and a RE24 of +3.0. Detroit answered emphatically in the bottom of the sixth, when Thayron Liranzo launched a home run off Jack Cushing that single-handedly swung win probability by 38.3 points, erasing Toronto's lead and vaulting the Tigers in front 4-3. It was the game's defining moment, and Liranzo finished as the contest's most valuable offensive player with a cumulative WPA of +46.1% and a RE24 of +2.5.
Toronto clawed back in the top of the ninth, with Arjun Nimmala reaching on a fielder's choice off Duque Hebbert for a +22.5% win-probability swing that tied the game at four and pushed Nimmala to +21.2% WPA on the day. Detroit had a chance to walk it off in the bottom of the ninth, but Justice Bigbie's strikeout against Hunter Gregory added 11.0% to Toronto's win probability and preserved the deadlock. Luke Stofel closed out the Toronto half of the ninth by retiring C.J. Stubbs on a strikeout, a sequence that cost the Blue Jays 10.9% in win probability and made Stofel the game's top pitcher by WPA at +10.9%, just ahead of Tanner Kohlhepp at +10.8% and Tyler Mattison at +8.5%. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Detroit as a slight 54% favorite, but the game ended without resolution for either side.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.