The Chicago Cubs defeated the San Diego Padres 6-5 at Sloan Park on February 24, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Chicago built its advantage methodically, scoring in the first two innings before the Padres answered with a two-run fourth. The Cubs then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the fifth, pulling away for good and ultimately holding off a late San Diego push that produced two runs in the ninth but fell short.
The swing plays told the story clearly. Nick Castellanos delivered the most impactful offensive moment of the game in the top of the fourth, a double off Jacob Webb that shifted win probability by plus 15.0 percent in San Diego's favor and temporarily brought the Padres within striking distance. However, Chicago responded in kind during the bottom of the fifth, where BJ Murray ripped a double off Francis Peña for a plus 13.1 percent swing, followed quickly by a Carson Kelly home run off the same pitcher worth plus 11.3 percent, a two-play sequence that effectively settled the contest. San Diego's third inning also proved costly, with Samad Taylor and Nick Solak each grounding out on fly balls against Daniel Palencia, those two outs combining for a minus 14.5 percent drag on the Padres' win probability.
Among individual performers, Castellanos led all batters with a plus 16.8 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Murray posted the strongest run-environment contribution at plus 1.9 RE24 alongside his plus 14.8 percent WPA. On the mound, Ethan Roberts was Chicago's most valuable arm at plus 6.4 percent WPA, with Shota Imanaga and Bradgley Rodriguez each providing additional meaningful contributions. The Padres outhit the Cubs 12 to 9 but the Cubs committed one error while San Diego made none, and Chicago's ability to concentrate its damage in the fifth inning proved to be the margin of difference.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.