The Los Angeles Dodgers handled the Cleveland Guardians convincingly on February 24, 2026, at Camelback Ranch, winning 11-3 in a game that was effectively decided by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability, a number that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by the final out. Cleveland grabbed a brief foothold in the top of the second when Travis Bazzana connected for a home run off Edgardo Henriquez, a swing worth plus 11.3 percent in win probability that gave the Guardians a 3-0 lead. Los Angeles answered immediately with a two-run first, then erupted for five runs in the bottom of the third to seize control for good.
The third inning was the game's decisive sequence, and Colin Holderman absorbed most of the damage. Freddie Freeman delivered the inning's most impactful blow, a double off Holderman that added 14.7 percent to Los Angeles's win probability, the single largest swing of the game. Teoscar Hernández followed with a single worth plus 10.6 percent, and Andy Pages added a double at plus 7.9 percent, with Nick Senzel capping the inning with a sacrifice fly that contributed another 5.8 percent. Those four plate appearances off Holderman alone accounted for an enormous share of the game's overall probability movement.
Among individual performers, Bazzana led all players by WPA at plus 14.6 percent to go along with a RE24 of plus 2.5, the best run-environment figure in the box score, though his contributions came in a losing effort. Freeman finished at plus 13.9 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24, while Hernández posted plus 10.9 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24 on the Dodgers' side. On the mound, Justin Wrobleski led Los Angeles pitchers at plus 4.8 percent WPA, with Gavin Williams contributing plus 4.1 percent in a losing effort for Cleveland and Ryder Ryan adding plus 3.5 percent for Los Angeles. The Guardians finished with two errors against a clean Dodgers defense, a disparity that compounded the difficulties of an already lopsided afternoon.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.