The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Texas Rangers 6-4 at Surprise Stadium on February 24, 2026, with Arizona building its lead early and holding off a late Texas push to secure the win. The DiamondIQ model opened the game favoring Texas at 54% home win probability, but that edge eroded steadily and closed at 0% as Arizona's bats did their damage.
The decisive stretch came in the top of the fifth inning, where Arizona did the bulk of its scoring against Austin Gomber. A.J. Vukovich delivered the biggest single swing of the game, a home run that shifted win probability by 19.7 percentage points in Arizona's favor. Ketel Marte followed with a home run of his own off Gomber, adding another 11.8 points to Arizona's edge and effectively turning a close contest into a comfortable cushion. Arizona added two more runs in the seventh off Taylor Rashi, though a Jose Herrera flyout in the bottom half of that inning represented a 13.3-point swing back toward Texas, the most damaging plate appearance against Arizona's cause. Texas continued to chip away, with Alejandro Osuna's single off Bryce Jarvis in the bottom of the eighth generating a 12.3-point swing for the Rangers. The Rangers' final threat came in the bottom of the ninth, but Aaron Zavala's flyout off John Curtiss ended the game and, counterintuitively, carried the largest WPA among Texas batters at plus-14.4 points given the leverage of the moment.
Among individual performers, Zavala led all batters with a WPA of plus-18.0 despite Texas falling short, while Vukovich finished at plus-17.2 with a RE24 of plus-1.4, reflecting his outsized run-environment contribution. Osuna added plus-11.9 WPA for Texas. On the mound, Isaiah Campbell led Arizona's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-7.5, followed by Philip Abner at plus-6.6 and Jacob Latz at plus-5.4. Arizona finished with 13 hits and one error against Texas's 10 hits and clean defense.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.