Tampa Bay walked off Boston 2-1 at Charlotte Sports Park on February 23, 2026, in a game that stayed scoreless through eight innings before an explosion of action in the ninth decided everything. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for the Rays, and by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent.
Boston appeared poised to break through first in the top of the ninth, when Mickey Gasper drove a triple off Trevor Martin that shifted win probability 41.0 points in the Red Sox's favor. The threat dissolved quickly, however, as Caden Rose grounded into a double play off Martin, swinging momentum 18.2 points back toward Tampa Bay and leaving Boston with just the one run from Gasper's eventual score. That sequence set the stage for one of the game's most consequential at-bats. In the bottom of the ninth, Blake Sabol singled off T.J. Sikkema to push the probability another 12.3 points toward Tampa Bay, though Homer Bush Jr. struck out to keep the outcome uncertain. Then Jonny DeLuca delivered the decisive blow, lining a walk-off single off Calvin Bickerstaff that added 78.8 points of win probability in a single swing and plated the winning run.
DeLuca finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a 74.2 percent WPA and a 1.4 RE24, while Gasper's triple made him the standout for Boston at 38.3 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24. Logan Davidson contributed a 15.5 percent WPA and 0.6 RE24 in support of the Rays' cause. On the mound, Sikkema led Tampa Bay's pitching staff with a 21.2 percent WPA, followed by Jesse Scholtens at 18.9 percent and Mason Englert at 13.4 percent, as the Rays collectively held Boston to one run on eight hits without committing an error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.