The St. Louis Cardinals rallied for three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to defeat the Miami Marlins 5-4 at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium on February 23, 2026. Miami had carried a lead into the final frame, but the Cardinals erased it in dramatic fashion, turning what had been a tightly contested game into a Cardinals victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with St. Louis holding a 54 percent home win probability before the first pitch, and by the time the final out was recorded, that figure had reached 100 percent, reflecting just how decisively the ninth-inning sequence settled the outcome.
The decisive swing in win probability came on Jeremy Rivas's double off Peyton Fosher in the bottom of the ninth, a play that added 46.2 percent in win probability and served as the centerpiece of the Cardinals' comeback. Moments later, a wild pitch by Fosher shifted the odds another 35.9 percent in St. Louis's favor, and Ryan Weingartner followed with a double off Colby Martin that added another 11.0 percent, completing the three-run burst. Miami had manufactured its own momentum in the middle innings, as Javier Sanoja's double off Hancel Rincon in the top of the sixth added 15.5 percent for the Marlins, and Gage Miller's hit by pitch off Michael Watson in the eighth contributed 12.9 percent, keeping Miami's hopes alive heading into the ninth.
Rivas finished as the game's most impactful player, posting a cumulative WPA of plus 48.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.1. Graysen Tarlow also stood out with a plus 25.7 percent WPA and plus 0.3 RE24, while Miller contributed plus 12.9 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 for Miami despite ending up on the losing side. On the pitching side, Patrick Monteverde led all arms with a plus 23.0 percent WPA contribution, followed by Brycen Mautz at plus 11.4 percent and William Kempner at plus 7.9 percent, as the Cardinals' bullpen ultimately preserved the win after a shaky final frame from Fosher.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.