The Boston Red Sox handed the Minnesota Twins a 7-2 defeat on February 21, 2026, at Lee Health Sports Complex, holding Minnesota to five hits while committing zero errors against a Twins squad that struggled defensively with four errors of their own. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with the Twins holding a 54 percent home win probability, but by the final out that figure had fallen to zero, a collapse driven largely by two decisive offensive bursts from Boston in the fifth and seventh innings.
The pivotal sequence came in the top of the seventh, when Boston sent three consecutive damaging blows against Grant Hartwig to break the game open. Kristian Campbell opened the frame with a double that swung win probability 15.8 points in Boston's favor, then Mikey Romero followed with a single worth another 13.2 points, and Allan Castro capped the rally with a fielder's choice that added another 13.2 points. The Red Sox plated three runs in that inning and added three more in the ninth to seal the outcome. Earlier, in the top of the fifth, Andruw Monasterio had given Boston a lead with a home run off Justin Topa that moved the needle 11.1 points. Minnesota's best chance to alter the game's trajectory came in the fourth, when Masataka Yoshida grounded into a double play off Simeon Woods Richardson, a play that cost Boston 9.1 win-probability points and blunted a potential rally.
Among the individual standouts, Allan Castro led all batters with a WPA of plus-16.3 and an RE24 of plus-1.9, while Mikey Romero contributed a plus-15.3 WPA and a plus-1.5 RE24. Kristian Campbell rounded out the top three offensive performers at plus-14.2 WPA. On the mound, Michael Sansone was Boston's most impactful arm, posting a plus-12.7 WPA, followed by Simeon Woods Richardson at plus-11.2 and Cooper Adams at plus-8.8.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.