The Texas Rangers held off the Chicago Cubs 3-2 at Sloan Park on February 21, 2026, completing the road win after the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs victory opened at 54% before the game and fell to 0% by the final out. Texas built its margin across two innings, scratching out a run in the second and then pulling ahead with two more in the fourth, while Chicago answered with single runs in the second and fourth to keep the game close through nine innings. The Rangers finished with ten hits and no errors against the Cubs' nine hits and one error.
The decisive sequences came in clusters. Sam Haggerty's double off Hoby Milner in the top of the fourth was the Rangers' single biggest offensive swing, shifting win probability 20.4 points in Texas's favor and contributing to the two-run inning that proved to be the game's margin. Chicago's best chance to respond in the bottom half evaporated quickly, as Carson Kelly grounded into a forceout off Cole Stasio at a cost of 9.4 win-probability points for the Cubs, and Pete Crow-Armstrong followed with a pop out that shed another 8.7 points. The Cubs threatened again in the eighth, but Ariel Armas's forceout off Ben Anderson swung momentum 18.7 points back toward Texas. The game ended in the ninth when Hayden Cantrelle struck out against Wilian Bormie, a sequence that moved 31.6 points of win probability to the Rangers' ledger and closed out the victory.
Cantrelle led all position players with a WPA of plus-34.2, while Haggerty added plus-24.9 with a RE24 of plus-3.1 that reflected his direct run-environment contribution. Jefferson Rojas rounded out the top offensive contributors at plus-11.4 WPA. On the mound, Ben Anderson paced the Rangers pitching staff at plus-23.3 WPA, with Cole Stasio contributing plus-18.1 and Patrick Murphy adding plus-9.7 to secure the 3-2 final.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.