The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 9-6 on February 21, 2026, at American Family Fields of Phoenix, overcoming a Milwaukee team that had entered the game as the DiamondIQ model's 54% favorite. Cleveland finished with 10 hits and 9 runs, matching Milwaukee's hit total while pulling away through a series of decisive swings in the middle innings that steadily shifted the win-probability landscape away from the home side.
The game's single most consequential moment came in the top of the fifth, when Nolan Jones connected on a home run off Tyson Hardin that swung win probability 34.7 points in Cleveland's favor, effectively turning what had been a contested game into a Guardians-controlled contest. Jones finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and run expectancy, posting a combined 43.7% win-probability added and a RE24 of plus-3.5. Cooper Ingle followed in the sixth with a home run off Brett Wichrowski worth 20.4 percentage points of win probability, extending Cleveland's grip. On Milwaukee's side, David Hamilton kept the Brewers briefly relevant in the bottom of the fourth with a double off Ryan Webb that added 18.9 points of win probability, but Travis Bazzana's walk off Jaron DeBerry earlier in the fourth had already begun swinging the frame toward Cleveland, and a Chase DeLauter forceout off Jesús Broca cost the Guardians 11.6 points before they ultimately seized control.
On the mound, Jack Carey led Cleveland's pitching staff with plus-7.1% WPA, followed by Blake Holub at plus-5.2% and Will Childers at plus-5.0%, a collective effort that held Milwaukee to 6 runs and prevented any late rally from gaining traction. The Brewers scored twice in the bottom of the eighth but could not close a deficit that the model's estimate had already rendered insurmountable, finishing at zero percent win probability as the final out was recorded.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.