The Washington Nationals defeated the Houston Astros 2-1 at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches on February 21, 2026, in a low-scoring contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Washington victory climb from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Nationals built their margin incrementally, scoring in the second inning before adding single runs in the fifth and sixth to establish the game's decisive margin. Houston's lone run came in the second inning, and the Astros finished with four hits and no errors while Washington collected five hits of their own in the clean, error-free affair.
The game's pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the sixth, when Jorgelys Mota connected on a home run off Logan VanWey, a swing that added 15.2 percent to Washington's win probability and proved to be the knockout blow. Earlier, in the bottom of the fifth, Dylan Crews grounded into a double play off Miguel Ullola, a play that cost Houston 17.6 percent in win probability and extinguished a potential rally. Houston's last gasp came in the top of the ninth against Holden Powell, where Tommy Sacco Jr. drew a walk to briefly inject 18.7 percent into the Astros' chances, but Kellen Strahm then grounded into a double play that erased 43.6 percent of Houston's win probability in a single moment, effectively ending the game. Joseph Sullivan's subsequent strikeout closed the door entirely.
Among the standout performers, Mota and Carlos Pérez each finished with a WPA of plus 15.2 percent, with Mota and CJ Abrams each posting a RE24 of plus 1.0. On the mound, Holden Powell led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 15.2 percent, with Sandy Gaston contributing plus 10.8 percent and Jack Sinclair adding plus 8.5 percent as Washington's staff held Houston to a single run across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.