Seattle took a 7-4 victory over San Diego at Peoria Stadium on February 20, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate beginning at a 54 percent pre-game probability for the Mariners and closing at 100 percent by the final out. The decisive stretch came in the seventh inning, where the game effectively turned twice in quick succession. Jose F. Miranda's home run off Alex Hoppe in the top half added 24.5 percentage points to San Diego's win probability, briefly threatening Seattle's grip, but Connor Joe answered in the bottom half with a single off Jackson Wolf that swung win probability by 25.2 points in Seattle's favor, representing the single largest play of the game. Michael Arroyo had already done meaningful damage earlier, clubbing a home run off Jagger Haynes in the bottom of the second for a 14.0-point swing that gave the Mariners an early foundation, while Romeo Sanabria's home run off Troy Taylor in the top of the sixth was the only other notable momentum shift, worth 8.3 points for the Padres.
Among individual performers, Joe finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 24.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Miranda led all batters with a RE24 of plus 1.6 despite the Padres ultimately falling short. Arroyo contributed the strongest run-environment impact of any batter with a RE24 of plus 2.1 to go along with his plus 15.4 percent WPA. On the mound, Cooper Criswell was the most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure, generating plus 9.6 percent WPA, followed by Blas Castaño at plus 8.1 percent and Michael Rucker at plus 4.8 percent. Seattle's pitching staff held San Diego to four runs on eight hits without committing an error, while the Mariners offense collected 13 hits of their own to pull away convincingly over the final three innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.