MLB Recap · August 24, 2024

New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

NYM7
Final
SD1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
NYM100400110750
SD000010000162

The Story

The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres 7-1 at Petco Park on August 24, 2024, a result that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability at 0%, down from 57% before first pitch. The Mets were thoroughly dominant, committing no errors against a Padres club that made two, and the outcome was largely settled by the fourth inning.

The decisive moment came in the top of the fourth when Francisco Lindor drove a home run off Michael King, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a +28.0% win-probability shift and the single largest play of the game. That blow was part of a four-run frame that effectively broke the contest open. A Jeff McNeil hit by pitch earlier in that same inning also registered as a meaningful contributor, adding +3.9% in win probability and helping to set the table. On the San Diego side, opportunities to keep pace faded quietly — Kyle Higashioka's lineout in the second carried a -6.2% swing, and Jurickson Profar's groundout in the fifth and Xander Bogaerts's strikeout in the first each further eroded the Padres' chances against David Peterson.

Lindor finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating +33.9% WPA and +3.9 RE24 on the strength of his home run and overall plate presence. Peterson was equally dominant on the mound, posting +26.7% WPA as he kept San Diego's lineup largely in check through his time on the hill. Starling Marte contributed a modest +3.9% WPA in support, while Adrian Morejon was the only Padres reliever to finish in positive territory, adding +1.4% WPA in a losing effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025NYM bats firstFinalSD win %NYM win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 57.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Francisco Lindor Home Run
Top 4th · off Michael King
+28.0%
Kyle Higashioka Lineout
Bot 2nd · off David Peterson
-6.2%
Jurickson Profar Groundout
Bot 5th · off David Peterson
-5.4%
Xander Bogaerts Strikeout
Bot 1st · off David Peterson
-4.5%
Jeff McNeil Hit By Pitch
Top 4th · off Michael King
+3.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Francisco Lindor+33.9%+3.9 RE24
Starling Marte+3.9%-0.7 RE24
Jeff McNeil+2.5%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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