St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins blanked the St. Louis Cardinals 6-0 on August 24, 2024, at Target Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked closely after opening with a 60 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The game was effectively decided in the third inning, when Minnesota sent four runs across the plate against Sonny Gray to turn a scoreless contest into a comfortable lead. St. Louis never recovered, finishing with five hits and no runs across nine innings.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Trevor Larnach delivered the knockout blow with a home run off Sonny Gray that shifted win probability by plus 22.5 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Austin Martin set the table in that same frame with a double that added another 4.4 percent. The Cardinals had a brief moment to respond at the top of the third, when Victor Scott II pulled a double off Pablo López for a plus 6.4 percent swing, but Alec Burleson's strikeout in that same half-inning wiped out much of that leverage, costing St. Louis 10.3 percent in win probability. Paul Goldschmidt added a double off López in the fifth, but Minnesota's lead was long past threatened.

Larnach finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting a plus 25.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 3.3. Pablo López was the standout performer on the mound, accumulating plus 15.6 percent WPA in a dominant outing that kept the Cardinals' lineup in check throughout. Victor Scott II and Austin Martin provided secondary contributions for their respective teams, but neither could alter what became a one-sided final.