Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-3 on August 23, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 63% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. The Rays drew first blood in the first inning and extended their lead with a two-run frame in the third, highlighted by Christopher Morel's home run off Bobby Miller, a swing that shifted win probability 17.4 points in Tampa Bay's favor and made him the top Rays contributor on the night at +5.8% WPA. Los Angeles began its answer in the fifth inning, where Enrique Hernández delivered a home run off Tyler Alexander that swung win probability 27.8 points toward the Dodgers, a pivotal blow that effectively redirected the game's trajectory and left Hernández as the second-most impactful bat of the night at +29.0% WPA and +2.4 RE24.

The finishing stroke came in the bottom of the ninth, where Shohei Ohtani launched a home run off Colin Poche worth a game-high +33.4% win-probability swing, capping a four-run inning that put the result firmly out of reach. Ohtani led all players with a +31.2% WPA and +3.1 RE24 on the evening. On the mound, the Dodgers bullpen locked things down efficiently, with Garrett Cleavinger, Michael Kopech, and Evan Phillips contributing +15.0%, +13.5%, and +10.6% WPA respectively. Tampa Bay's late hopes faded when Jose Siri struck out against Kopech in the ninth, a sequence that cost the Rays 13.7 points of win probability and effectively ended any remaining suspense in a game that belonged to Los Angeles from the middle innings onward.