Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves walked off the Washington Nationals 3-2 in ten innings on August 23, 2024, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 63 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Washington had taken a 2-1 lead with a two-run fourth inning, as Andrés Chaparro delivered a double off Chris Sale that swung win probability 17.4 percent in the Nationals' favor. Atlanta answered with a run in the seventh to knot the game at two, and Eduardo Salazar held the Braves off the board in the ninth, with Sean Murphy's strikeout representing a 14.0 percent swing that kept Washington alive heading to extras.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the tenth when a fielding error off the bat of Michael Harris II, charged to José A. Ferrer, produced a 35.9 percent win-probability swing and set the stage for Atlanta's walk-off. The sequence was not without tension: Orlando Arcia's lineout off Salazar briefly swung things 19.5 percent back toward Washington, but Gio Urshela followed with a groundout that moved win probability 19.5 percent in Atlanta's direction as the winning run crossed. Harris II finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a combined WPA of plus 29.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.2.

On the pitching side, MacKenzie Gore led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 28.5 percent, providing Washington its best chance at a victory before the bullpen eventually ceded the lead in extras. Joe Jiménez contributed plus 10.6 percent and Raisel Iglesias added plus 9.5 percent for Atlanta's relief corps. Jacob Young also stood out among Washington's batters with a WPA of plus 13.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.8, giving the Nationals a credible threat throughout before the Braves ultimately secured the victory without committing an error in the field through regulation.