Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs defeated the Miami Marlins 6-3 at loanDepot park on August 23, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly by the final out, dropping Miami's win probability from a pre-game 40% to 0%. Chicago built its advantage in fits and starts, scoring three runs in the third inning and adding insurance runs in the eighth and ninth to put the game out of reach. The Marlins committed two errors against a Cubs lineup that made no defensive mistakes of its own, finishing with nine hits.
The decisive swing in fortune came in the third inning, when Ian Happ connected on a home run off Max Meyer, a play that added 16.4% to Chicago's win probability and gave the Cubs the cushion they needed to work with. Kyle Stowers kept a Marlins rally flicker alive in the fifth with a walk off Tyson Miller, a moment worth 12.3% in win probability added for Miami, but the Cubs answered in the eighth when Isaac Paredes doubled off Brett de Geus, adding 12.4% to Chicago's chances. Porter Hodge then sealed the game in the bottom of the eighth, striking out Nick Fortes and Vidal Bruján in sequence, swings that removed 19.0% and 12.9% from Miami's win probability respectively and effectively ended any hope of a comeback.
Among position players, Jonah Bride led all batters with a WPA of plus 26.3% and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Pete Crow-Armstrong contributed plus 14.8% WPA and the game's best RE24 among hitters at plus 1.7. Stowers finished at plus 11.9% WPA despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Porter Hodge was the standout performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus 30.8% for Chicago, with Declan Cronin adding plus 8.3% in support. The DiamondIQ model favors Chicago's bullpen combination as the clearest reason the Marlins were never able to close the gap in the final innings.