Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Houston Astros 7-5 on August 23, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 58% pre-game home win probability to a final 100% certainty in Baltimore's favor. The game turned on two distinct bursts of offense — a Houston third inning that briefly threatened to swing control of the game, and a decisive Baltimore eighth that put the result beyond reach.

Houston struck first and hardest in the top of the third, when Jose Altuve connected on a home run off Cade Povich that shifted win probability by plus-16.9 percentage points, and Jeremy Peña followed with a double worth an additional plus-11.2 points. That frame produced four Astros runs and represented their clearest path toward victory. The Orioles answered with a run of their own in the third, then held Houston to a single run through the sixth, keeping the game within reach heading into the late innings.

Baltimore's eighth inning off Bryan Abreu was the decisive sequence. Ramón Urías opened the damage with a triple that moved the win probability needle plus-15.7 points, and a Gunnar Henderson fielder's choice added another plus-19.6 points. The knockout blow came from Anthony Santander, whose home run off Abreu registered a plus-41.5 point swing — the single largest win-probability play of the game — and gave Santander a final WPA line of plus-39.1 with a RE24 of plus-2.2, the best marks among all batters. On the pitching side, Hunter Brown led Astros relievers with a plus-12.7 WPA, while Tayler Scott at plus-6.3 was among the standouts for Baltimore's bullpen in closing out the 7-5 final.