MLB Recap · August 22, 2024

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

LAA3
Final
TOR5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA000000003390
TOR05000000-580

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-3 at Rogers Centre on August 22, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Toronto win climbing from 59% before first pitch to a virtual certainty by game's end. The outcome was effectively decided in a single inning, as the Blue Jays plated all five of their runs in the bottom of the second, leaving the Angels to play six-plus innings in a deficit they could not fully erase. Los Angeles managed a three-run ninth but finished with the final score at 5-3, never threatening in any other frame.

The second inning unfolded as a sequence of damaging blows against Angel relievers Brock Burke and Mike Baumann. Spencer Horwitz set the table with a double off Burke that added 4.5 percentage points to Toronto's win probability, and Will Wagner followed with a single off the same pitcher worth 8.5 points, the single largest swing of the game. When Baumann entered and surrendered an Ernie Clement home run, that swing carried another 8.4 points in Toronto's favor. Horwitz contributed further damage in the inning with a groundout credited at plus 7.1 points, underscoring how thoroughly the Blue Jays extracted value from each plate appearance. On the other side of the ledger, Anthony Rendon grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth against Ryan Yarbrough, costing the Angels 3.9 points of win probability and extinguishing what little hope they carried into the middle innings.

Individually, Spencer Horwitz led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 11.5, while Will Wagner and Ernie Clement each finished at plus 8.1. On the mound, Ryan Yarbrough was the night's most impactful arm, generating a model-leading plus 12.7 WPA as he stifled the Angels through the middle portion of the game. Griffin Canning added plus 2.4 and Brendon Little contributed plus 1.4 in support. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Toronto having controlled this game decisively from the second inning forward, with the Angels' late rally doing little more than trimming a margin that had long since been settled.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalTOR win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 59.1% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Will Wagner Single
Bot 2nd · off Brock Burke
+8.5%
Ernie Clement Home Run
Bot 2nd · off Mike Baumann
+8.4%
Spencer Horwitz Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Mike Baumann
+7.1%
Spencer Horwitz Double
Bot 2nd · off Brock Burke
+4.5%
Anthony Rendon Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Ryan Yarbrough
-3.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Spencer Horwitz+11.5%-0.1 RE24
Will Wagner+8.1%+0.8 RE24
Ernie Clement+8.1%+1.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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