Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 18 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Minnesota Twins handed the San Diego Padres an 11-4 defeat at Petco Park on August 21, 2024, collecting 18 hits while committing no errors. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving San Diego a 54% chance of winning at home, but that estimate collapsed to 0% by the final out as Minnesota scored all but four of its runs in the third and fourth innings and never relinquished control.
The decisive blow came in the fourth inning, when Austin Martin's double off Matt Waldron swung win probability by 16.0 percentage points in Minnesota's favor, capping a seven-run frame that effectively ended the competitive portion of the game. Waldron absorbed the damage across multiple plate appearances in that stretch, with Willi Castro adding a double worth 7.4 points of win probability and Matt Wallner following with a home run that moved the needle another 5.9 points. Trevor Larnach had already set the tone a half-inning earlier, doubling off Waldron in the third for a shift of 8.6 percentage points, and he contributed a single in the fourth as well for an additional 3.9-point swing.
By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, Larnach finished as the most productive bat on the night with a cumulative WPA of plus-12.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.4, while Martin posted plus-13.6 WPA and Castro added plus-10.2. On the mound, Simeon Woods Richardson was the standout performer, generating plus-13.1 points of win probability for Minnesota and holding the Padres in check long enough for the offense to build an insurmountable lead.