Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11 | 1 |
| TOR | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Toronto Blue Jays an 11-7 loss at Rogers Centre on August 21, 2024, erasing Toronto's pre-game advantage and leaving the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at 0% by the final out. Toronto grabbed the early momentum with three runs in the first inning and three more in the third, the latter highlighted by Ernie Clement's home run off Nick Martinez, which shifted win probability 12.9 points in Toronto's favor. Cincinnati, however, answered in a decisive fashion over the middle innings, outscoring the Blue Jays 8-0 from the fourth through the sixth to seize full control of the game.
The fifth inning proved to be the turning point of the contest, as Cincinnati sent the game into an irreversible tilt. Elly De La Cruz delivered the most impactful single swing of the night, a single off Brendon Little that boosted Cincinnati's win probability by 19.1 points. Later in the same frame, Tyler Stephenson added a fielder's choice off Little worth another 12.2 points of win probability, and Santiago Espinal drew a walk off Erik Swanson that pushed the needle an additional 11.5 points. Cincinnati piled on in the sixth when Noelvi Marte launched a home run off Swanson, a 12.1-point swing that effectively closed the door on any Toronto comeback.
On the strength of their individual contributions, De La Cruz and Stephenson stood as Cincinnati's top performers by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing at plus-21.7 and plus-17.7 WPA respectively, with De La Cruz also leading all position players at plus-2.9 RE24. Ernie Clement was the lone bright spot in the Toronto lineup, finishing at plus-14.8 WPA on the strength of his third-inning home run, though his contributions ultimately came in a losing effort. Out of the Cincinnati bullpen, Tony Santillan, Buck Farmer, and Emilio Pagan combined to protect the lead with WPA figures of plus-9.2, plus-4.1, and plus-3.3, respectively, helping Cincinnati hold off a late Blue Jays run in the ninth.