Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets walked off with a 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on August 21, 2024 at Citi Field, completing a late comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 48 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Mets trailed entering the ninth inning, having surrendered a two-run top-sixth home run by Austin Slater off Sean Manaea that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 23.6 percent in Baltimore's favor and briefly put the Orioles in firm control. An additional Jackson Holliday walk in the top of the eighth, worth 11.8 percent in win probability, extended the Baltimore lead before the Mets mounted their answer.

New York's offensive response was built on the long ball. Francisco Lindor got the Mets on the board in the third inning with a home run off Cole Irvin, a play worth 10.6 percent in win probability, and Mark Vientos followed with a solo shot off Craig Kimbrel in the seventh that added another 17.1 percent swing in the Mets' direction. Still, Baltimore held the lead entering the ninth until Jesse Winker launched a walk-off home run off Seranthony Domínguez, the single most decisive play of the game at plus-35.9 percent win probability, ending the contest in dramatic fashion.

From a performance standpoint, Winker led all batters with a WPA of plus-35.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Slater's contribution of plus-20.8 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24 stood as the top individual performance of the game despite coming on the losing side. Vientos also finished among the standout batters at plus-19.5 percent WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. On the mound, Edwin Díaz led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.5 percent, with Colin Selby and Sean Manaea each contributing positively at plus-5.4 and plus-5.3 percent respectively. Baltimore finished with just three hits while the Mets collected eight, and neither side committed an error.