Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees handed the Cleveland Guardians a decisive 8-1 defeat at Yankee Stadium on August 21, 2024, a game that was never particularly close after the first pitch. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, a swing that reflected how systematically New York dismantled Cleveland's pitching staff. The Yankees struck early against Joey Cantillo, building a 2-0 lead in the first inning on a Juan Soto home run that shifted win probability 3.6 points in New York's favor. Cantillo could not escape the third inning cleanly either, surrendering an Aaron Judge home run that moved the needle another 12.9 points, the single most impactful play of the game. A Soto double in the fourth added another 7.6 points to New York's probability, effectively putting the contest beyond reach by the middle frames.

Cleveland's offense offered little in response. The Guardians' most damaging moments came through their own failures at the plate, with Jhonkensy Noel's flyout in the second inning costing Cleveland 5.4 percentage points of win probability, followed immediately by Josh Naylor grounding into a double play that shed another 3.8 points, both against Nestor Cortes. Those back-to-back outs in the second underscored how thoroughly New York controlled the game on both sides of the ball. Cleveland managed just four hits across nine innings and did not score until the eighth, by which point the outcome had long been decided.

Soto led all batters with a 12.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-4.1, while Judge posted a 12.5 percent WPA and plus-2.9 RE24 to anchor the heart of the Yankees lineup. Anthony Volpe also contributed positively at plus-2.7 percent WPA. On the mound, Nestor Cortes was the standout with a 16.8 percent WPA, neutralizing Cleveland's lineup with authority. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game lean toward the Yankees proved well-founded, as New York's combination of starting pitching and middle-of-the-order production made this one of the more complete performances of the series.