Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Minnesota Twins 7-5 on August 20, 2024, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game giving the home side a 55 percent chance of winning and closing at 100 percent. The Twins drew first blood in a meaningful way when Ryan Jeffers connected on a home run off Martín Pérez in the fourth inning, a swing that shifted win probability by 15.5 points in Minnesota's favor and made Jeffers the second-most impactful batter on the night at plus-23.6 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24. San Diego responded through Manny Machado, whose seventh-inning home run off Bailey Ober moved the needle 22.9 points toward the Padres and pulled the club back into a competitive position heading into the late innings.
The decisive sequence arrived in the bottom of the eighth, where San Diego turned a tight contest into a comfortable margin. Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with a double off Ronny Henriquez that added 13.2 points of win probability, and Jurickson Profar then delivered the pivotal blow of the entire game, a home run off Steven Okert that swung win probability by 47.1 points and effectively decided the outcome. Profar finished as the game's most impactful player by a wide margin, posting plus-44.2 percent WPA and plus-2.0 RE24. Minnesota had briefly threatened in the top half of the eighth when Christian Vázquez singled off Tanner Scott to generate a 16.3-point swing, but the Padres' bullpen ultimately contained the damage.
On the pitching side, Griffin Jax led San Diego's relievers with plus-8.3 percent WPA, followed by Bryan Hoeing at plus-7.5 percent and Robert Suarez at plus-6.3 percent, a trio that collectively shut down Minnesota's lineup over the final innings. The Twins collected 13 hits to San Diego's 10, but were unable to convert that contact advantage into enough runs, finishing without an error in a clean defensive performance that nonetheless came up two runs short against a Padres offense that concentrated its damage precisely when it mattered most.