Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handed the Cincinnati Reds a lopsided 10-3 defeat at Rogers Centre on August 20, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Toronto's win probability beginning at 53% before climbing to 100% by game's end. The outcome was effectively decided early, as the Blue Jays sent Carson Spiers through a punishing second inning that shifted the game's probability dramatically in Toronto's favor. George Springer's two-run home run off Spiers in the bottom of the second was the single most consequential play of the contest, swinging win probability by 11.9 points. Joey Loperfido followed with a triple worth 5.3 points of win probability, Daulton Varsho added a groundout that pushed the needle another 6.1 points, and Addison Barger capped the inning with a double adding 7.2 points. Toronto plated three runs in that frame and never looked back, adding two more in the third on an Alejandro Kirk home run off Spiers that moved the model another 6.7 points toward the Blue Jays.

Springer finished as the game's top performer by both WPA and RE24, posting plus-11.0 win probability added and a RE24 of plus-2.2, reflecting the outsized run-environment impact of his contributions. Kirk and Varsho each finished at plus-7.9 win probability added, with Kirk's plus-1.1 RE24 edging Varsho's plus-0.6 in terms of run-context value. On the mound, José Berríos led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-6.9, providing the Blue Jays with stable footing to protect what became a comfortable lead. Cincinnati managed nine hits but was unable to string together consistent damage, finishing with three runs while committing one error as Toronto's 13-hit output underlined the thoroughness of their victory.