Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| HOU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Houston Astros a 6-5 defeat at Minute Maid Park on August 20, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 56 percent pre-game home win probability for Houston and pushing that figure to zero by the final out. Both clubs traded early blows in the first inning, each scoring three runs, before Houston added a run in the second to briefly assume control. Boston answered with two runs in the fourth, and the game remained tight through the middle innings until Yainer Diaz's home run off Nick Pivetta in the bottom of the fifth — a swing worth 13.4 percentage points of win probability — pulled the Astros back level. Jose Altuve's groundout into a double play in the fourth, which cost Houston 11.1 points of win probability off Pivetta, proved a significant missed opportunity for the home side.
The decisive blow came in the top of the eighth, when Jarren Duran launched a home run off Kaleb Ort that shifted win probability by 21.3 points in Boston's favor, giving the Red Sox a one-run edge they would not relinquish. Luis García then secured that lead in the bottom half, retiring Mauricio Dubón on a flyout that swung win probability 16.5 points toward Boston, finishing with 23.3 WPA points to lead all pitchers. Kenley Jansen closed out the ninth, getting Victor Caratini on a flyout that, despite representing Houston's last meaningful threat — a 31.6-point swing in Boston's direction — sealed the win for the Red Sox.
Duran was Boston's offensive catalyst, finishing as the game's top performer with a combined 36.3 WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.0, reflecting his outsized contribution to the run environment. Caratini's flyout, while a defensive outcome, registered 31.6 WPA for Boston given the leverage of the situation. Diaz led Houston's contributors with 18.5 WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.5, but his team's inability to convert late left the Astros on the wrong side of a one-run outcome in their own ballpark.