Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 at Truist Park on August 20, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered with a near-even 49% home win probability before Atlanta steadily pulled away to close at 100%. The Braves scored in three separate innings — the third, sixth, and eighth — never allowing the Phillies to sustain pressure, while Philadelphia's lone run came in the fourth. The game unfolded as a series of small but decisive moments that collectively swung the outcome well out of reach for Philadelphia.

The single largest win-probability swing of the night came in the bottom of the sixth, when Marcell Ozuna connected on a home run off Zack Wheeler, adding 13.8% in win probability and pushing Atlanta's advantage to a more comfortable margin. Whit Merrifield had set the tone earlier, delivering a triple off Wheeler in the third inning worth 9.2% in win probability, and Merrifield finished as the game's top batter overall at plus-19.9% WPA and plus-0.9 RE24. Ozuna followed as the second-most impactful offensive player at plus-12.9% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. Philadelphia's most significant counter came in the top of the fourth, when J.T. Realmuto singled off Reynaldo Lopez to generate an 11.3% win-probability gain — the Phillies' only sustained moment of leverage — and Realmuto finished at plus-5.5% WPA and plus-0.4 RE24.

On the pitching side, Atlanta's staff combined to neutralize Philadelphia throughout. Grant Holmes led all pitchers at plus-15.6% WPA, while Reynaldo Lopez contributed plus-11.4% WPA in what was a strong outing against a Philadelphia lineup that managed just five hits. Joe Jimenez added plus-10.8% WPA in relief. The eighth inning provided one final moment of tension when Gio Urshela drew a walk off Jose Alvarado worth 10.6% in win probability, but the Braves held firm and Atlanta's bullpen closed without allowing the Phillies any realistic path back into the game.