MLB Recap · August 20, 2024

Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

SEA3
Final
LAD6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA201000000380
LAD00020013-6101

The Story

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Seattle Mariners 6-3 at Dodger Stadium on August 20, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model had favored from the start, assigning the home side a 63 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Seattle grabbed an early two-run advantage in the first inning, but Los Angeles answered in the fourth when Max Muncy connected for a home run off Bryce Miller, a swing that shifted win probability by 11.3 percent and began the process of erasing the Mariners' lead. The Dodgers continued to build momentum in the seventh, where Mookie Betts doubled off Andrés Muñoz for a 14.2 percent win-probability swing, and Tommy Edman followed with a double off Tayler Saucedo worth 10.6 percent, setting the table for what was to come.

The decisive blow arrived in the bottom of the eighth inning, when Jason Heyward launched a home run off Muñoz that swung win probability by 37.8 percent, the single largest play of the game. That three-run frame, which produced three Los Angeles runs and put the contest effectively out of reach, was the turning point the DiamondIQ model captured in real time. Seattle's best opportunity to respond evaporated in the top of the eighth when Mitch Haniger hit into a strikeout double play off Joe Kelly, a sequence that cost the Mariners 11.1 percent in win probability and extinguished any remaining threat.

Among individual performers, Heyward led all batters with a combined WPA of plus-37.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.7, while Muncy finished at plus-16.3 percent WPA and plus-1.4 RE24. Jorge Polanco paced Seattle's offense with plus-13.2 percent WPA and a game-high plus-2.8 RE24, providing the Mariners their most productive contribution at the plate. On the mound, Collin Snider led Dodgers relievers with plus-13.1 percent WPA, and both Bryce Miller and Joe Kelly each contributed plus-10.6 percent for their respective teams despite Miller surrendering the Muncy homer and Kelly inducing the decisive double play.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalLAD win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 62.5% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jason Heyward Home Run
Bot 8th · off Andrés Muñoz
+37.8%
Mookie Betts Double
Bot 7th · off Andrés Muñoz
+14.2%
Max Muncy Home Run
Bot 4th · off Bryce Miller
+11.3%
Mitch Haniger Strikeout Double Play
Top 8th · off Joe Kelly
-11.1%
Tommy Edman Double
Bot 7th · off Tayler Saucedo
+10.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Jason Heyward+37.8%+2.7 RE24
Max Muncy+16.3%+1.4 RE24
Jorge Polanco+13.2%+2.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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