Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Miami Marlins 3-1 on August 20, 2024, at loanDepot park, handing Miami a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Marlins just a 35 percent chance of winning before first pitch. Arizona scored in the first, added a run in the fifth, and tacked on another in the sixth, while Miami's lone run came in the fifth in a game that never felt particularly close despite the final margin. The Diamondbacks finished with four hits and no errors, while Miami collected seven hits but was unable to convert them into runs at the moments that mattered most.
The two plays that effectively put the game away came in back-to-back innings from Arizona. In the top of the fifth, Corbin Carroll hit a home run off Edward Cabrera that swung win probability 12.2 percent in Arizona's favor. One inning later, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. followed with another home run off Cabrera, this one shifting the model 13.5 percent toward the Diamondbacks. Miami responded with some life in the bottom half of those same innings, as Xavier Edwards singled off Eduardo Rodriguez for an 11.2 percent swing in the fifth, and Connor Norby doubled in the sixth for a 12.1 percent move, but neither threat produced enough damage to change the outcome. The most improbable entry in the play-by-play belonged to Miami's Vidal Brujan, whose ninth-inning groundout off Justin Martinez registered a 14.4 percent swing, reflecting the desperate late-game situation the Marlins found themselves in rather than any productive result.
Arizona's bullpen was the story on the pitching side. A.J. Puk led all pitchers with a 22.9 percent WPA contribution, and Ryan Thompson added 19.4 percent, together forming the backbone of a shutdown relief effort that preserved the two-run lead through the final innings. Declan Cronin contributed an additional 4.2 percent. Norby finished as Miami's most impactful bat with a combined WPA of plus-12.7 percent and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Gurriel led Arizona's position players at plus-10.4 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Miami, a fitting reflection of how thoroughly Arizona controlled the game's critical moments.