Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 4 |
The Story
The Houston Astros walked off the Boston Red Sox 5-4 on August 19, 2024, at Minute Maid Park, with Yainer Diaz delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Houston a 57 percent win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100 percent. Houston trailed for portions of the contest and needed a late-game surge to secure the result, finishing with 13 hits against Boston's 7 while each club contributed to a sloppy affair marked by a combined five errors.
The single most consequential moment of the game came in the bottom of the ninth, when Diaz drove a home run off Kenley Jansen to end it, a swing that added 41.4 percent to Houston's win probability and represented the largest single-play impact of the night. Before that finish, the game's trajectory had been shaped by a back-and-forth sixth inning. Masataka Yoshida gave Boston a boost with a home run off Tayler Scott in the top half, a play worth plus 26.2 percent win probability from the Red Sox perspective. Houston answered in the bottom half to retake momentum. Earlier, the Astros had drawn first blood in the fourth when Victor Caratini singled off Tanner Houck, generating a plus 15.4 percent swing. The eighth inning briefly raised Houston's hopes when Mauricio Dubón singled off Lucas Sims for a plus 23.5 percent gain, only to see Jake Meyers ground into a double play moments later, erasing 19.0 percent of that leverage.
Caratini finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA, accumulating plus 32.2 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.5, reflecting the sustained run-creation value he provided throughout. Diaz ranked second at plus 29.1 percent WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus 0.4, illustrating how his contributions were concentrated almost entirely in that walk-off moment. Yoshida led Boston's contributors at plus 21.8 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24. On the mound, Josh Hader led all pitchers with plus 13.5 percent WPA, followed by Chris Martin at plus 9.7 percent and Yusei Kikuchi at plus 9.5 percent, a trio that kept Houston close enough for Diaz to ultimately finish the job.