Baltimore Orioles at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets walked off with a 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on August 19, 2024, at Citi Field, completing a dramatic comeback that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Mets win begin the game at 48 percent and close at 100 percent. The Mets struck first, plating two runs in the bottom of the first inning, but Baltimore answered with a run in the fifth and then seized the lead with a two-run seventh inning that shifted the game's complexion considerably.

The seventh inning was the pivot point for the Orioles, and the numbers reflect it clearly. Ramón Urías delivered the decisive blow of that frame, a home run off David Peterson that registered a win-probability swing of plus 24.5 percent, vaulting Baltimore ahead. Ryan Mountcastle added to the damage with a double off Peterson worth plus 8.7 percent in win probability, while Colton Cowser's strikeout in the same inning against Peterson represented a minus 7.8 percent swing that kept the Mets within reach. Urías finished as the game's second-most impactful batter by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting plus 24.8 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Keegan Akin led all pitchers at plus 19.2 percent WPA, followed by Edwin Díaz at plus 13.5 percent and José Buttó at plus 10.6 percent.

All of that Baltimore advantage evaporated in a single swing in the bottom of the ninth. Francisco Alvarez crushed a walk-off home run off Seranthony Domínguez, a blast that produced the largest single-play win-probability swing of the game at plus 41.4 percent and instantly ended Baltimore's lead. Alvarez was the game's most impactful batter overall, finishing at plus 39.6 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.7. Tyrone Taylor also contributed meaningfully for New York, his fourth-inning single off Trevor Rogers generating plus 7.4 percent in win probability and plus 5.8 percent WPA on the night.