Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Angels: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves defeated the Los Angeles Angels 3-1 at Angel Stadium on August 18, 2024, in a game the DiamondIQ model entered giving the home side a 44 percent chance of winning, a figure that eroded steadily before finishing at zero. Atlanta scored single runs in the first, fourth, and eighth innings while limiting Los Angeles to one run in the fifth, with the Braves finishing with eight hits against three for the Angels.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, where the game's two largest individual win-probability swings arrived back-to-back against Charlie Morton. Mickey Moniak's hit by pitch generated a 14.3 percent swing in the Angels' favor, briefly injecting life into the Los Angeles half of the inning, only for Taylor Ward to erase it entirely by grounding into a double play, a swing of negative 20.0 percent that effectively ended the Angels' most credible scoring threat of the evening. Earlier, in the top of the fourth, Ramón Laureano had done critical damage off Jack Kochanowicz with a home run that produced a 10.4 percent win-probability swing, and Matt Olson's double-play groundout in the third off the same pitcher represented a missed opportunity that cost Atlanta 13.8 percent in win probability. Logan O'Hoppe's groundout to close the ninth registered a 14.4 percent swing, reflecting how little margin Los Angeles had manufactured by that point.

Laureano finished as the top position player by WPA at plus 13.3 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Marcell Ozuna contributed plus 11.1 percent WPA. On the mound, Charlie Morton led all pitchers at plus 16.5 percent WPA, with Dylan Lee adding plus 13.8 percent and Joe Jiménez contributing plus 13.3 percent out of the bullpen to secure the road victory.