Miami Marlins at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets blanked the Miami Marlins 4-0 on August 17, 2024, at Citi Field, with Luis Severino controlling the game from the mound and the Mets offense doing its damage early. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a 69% home win probability and watched that figure climb steadily to 100% by the final out, a reflection of how thoroughly New York dominated after the first few innings.

The Mets built their lead methodically against Max Meyer in the early going. Pete Alonso got New York on the board in the second inning with a home run, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 6.7 percentage points. The third inning compounded Meyer's troubles further, as Brandon Nimmo ripped a triple worth plus 5.6 percentage points and Jesse Winker followed with a single that added another plus 5.8 percentage points to the Mets' side of the ledger. Mark Vientos then extended the lead with a double in the fourth inning, the single largest batting-team swing of the night at plus 6.9 percentage points. Miami's best moment came in the top of the fourth when Jake Burger doubled off Severino for a plus 5.8 percentage point swing, though the Marlins were unable to convert it into any scoring.

On the individual ledger, Burger finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 7.0 with a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Vientos posted the best RE24 among hitters at plus 0.9 alongside a plus 5.3 WPA. Winker contributed a plus 4.3 WPA and plus 0.3 RE24. Severino was the clear story of the night on the pitching side, generating plus 20.0 WPA, with Emmanuel Ramirez adding plus 1.8 and Calvin Faucher contributing plus 0.7 in relief. The model leaned comfortably toward New York before first pitch, and the on-field result validated that lean without much drama.