Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Cleveland Guardians 2-1 on August 17, 2024, at American Family Field in a tight, low-scoring contest that the DiamondIQ model had Milwaukee favored to win at 53% before first pitch, a figure that climbed to 100% by the final out. All of the game's scoring was compressed into the fourth inning, when the two clubs exchanged solo home runs that ultimately defined the outcome. Josh Naylor gave Cleveland a brief lead with a home run off Freddy Peralta, a swing worth +11.4% in win probability. Milwaukee answered immediately in the bottom half when William Contreras connected off Tanner Bibee for a home run of his own, a blow worth +11.8% that returned the advantage to the home side and, as it turned out, provided the margin of victory.

From that point forward, the pitching staffs on both sides prevented any further scoring across the final five innings. Freddy Peralta was the most impactful individual performer in the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing +19.3% in win probability on the mound, with Brayan Rocchio's flyout in the third representing one of the night's most consequential missed opportunities at -8.4% for Cleveland. Devin Williams closed it out with +15.2% added in win probability, and Will Brennan's groundout to end the ninth, worth -7.1% for the Guardians, sealed the result. Jared Koenig added +10.8% in bridging work out of the Milwaukee bullpen.

Among position players, Contreras led all batters with a +9.2% WPA and +0.6 RE24, while Willy Adames contributed +4.6% WPA and Naylor finished as Cleveland's top offensive contributor at +3.8% WPA despite the loss. Cleveland managed just four hits and committed one error, while Milwaukee matched that hit total without an error, leaving the Brewers with a clean 2-1 win built almost entirely on the strength of their pitching staff.